Is Matt Mahan’s campaign for California governor losing steam?

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan’s late entry into the California governor’s race met immediate fanfare in Silicon Valley two months ago. But reports of internal tension, a top strategist’s exit, a curious fundraising scheme and persistent low polling suggest his billionaire-paved road to Sacramento may turn to gravel.

Since his Jan. 29 campaign announcement, Mahan has struggled to break above the single digits — or even get a mention — in various candidate polls. But the first worrying coughs came when POLITICO reported he parted ways with top campaign strategist Eric Jaye, a San Francisco-based consultant who has been in Mahan’s political orbit for years.

Shortly after, The New York Times reported Mahan’s supporters pitching an “all or nothing” fundraising effort to raise $35 million in an escrow account by April 17 — or all donors would get their money back. Both stories reported on tensions in Mahan’s circle about the direction of the campaign.

A common source of the pain has been the mayor’s late entry, which he teased in the weeks and months leading up to his announcement.

“The problem is they wanted to spend a bunch of money toward the end — but you’re out of time. Ballots drop in four, five weeks,” one source close to the campaign, who asked for anonymity in order to speak freely, told San José Spotlight.

The source bemoaned Mahan being saddled with a “billionaire puppet” moniker early on in the race. Mahan has raised $12 million so far from Silicon Valley elites such as Google co-founder Sergey Brin, Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale and YCombinator CEO Garry Tan — who have all maxed out their legally-allowed contributions at $78,400 each. About $15 million has been raised to support Mahan through outside groups, namely an independent committee that dropped $1.5 million on a Super Bowl ad paid for by venture capitalists.

“And that really stuck,” the source said. “The irony is that you have an actual billionaire in the race. Eric wanted to save money toward the last push and you needed to spend money early on to combat that stuff.”

Neither Jaye nor Mahan responded to requests for comment.

Steve Maviglio, a Sacramento political consultant who has worked with Jaye on several projects, said he spoke with the departed consultant in recent weeks.

“It’s clear to me his strategy was to hold your fire until you see the whites of their eyes, and that didn’t jive with what others on that campaign were thinking,” Maviglio told San José Spotlight. “It’s a signal of trouble — of being unsure of the direction to go in. To make a split like that is typically not a positive sign.”

Though he rejects the notion these shake-ups are a cue for the San Jose mayor to drop out of the race — amid calls from the state Democratic Party for low-polling candidates such as Mahan to do so.

“That’s the Sacramento bubble talking,” Maviglio said. “At some point he’s gotta say, ‘My numbers aren’t moving, do I want to cut my losses?’ But this race is still completely up for grabs. I haven’t got a single piece of mail at my house. Most people — real people — are worried about other things at the moment.”

It comes after Congressman Eric Swalwell dropped out of the gubernatorial race following allegations of sexual assault. Mahan’s supporters have taken to social media to boost the mayor’s name amid the departure of Swalwell, who has been considered a frontrunner in the race. Mahan has polled well below other frontrunner candidates such as billionaire Tom Steyer and former Congresswoman Katie Porter.

Other candidates include former Fox News host Steve Hilton, who has been endorsed by President Donald Trump, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaigrosa, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and former State Controller Betty Yee.

In public messaging, Mahan has sought to peel off people from the extremes of both political parties, galvanizing voters in the middle.

“That was an unrealistic expectation on their part,” Maviglio said. “I think the June primary voter is a more partisan voter than you’ll find in November. You have people that are more emphatic in their philosophies and political parties. And I think he was really hobbled by getting in so late.”

Santa Clara County Democratic Party Chair Bill James agrees Mahan’s late entry is spelling consequences. He also called the escrow fundraising scheme, which is being coordinated by independent groups with no technical tie to Mahan’s campaign, “inappropriate and awkward.” The New York Times reported on Tuesday that the fund was at roughly half its target, and that its coordinators have drummed up its appeal on the fact donors’ contributions would not be immediately subject to disclosure.

POLITICO on Monday reported the fundraising campaign has raised another $10 million and launched a $14 million media blitz, including an appearance on MS Now’s Morning Joe.

David Crane — who is leading the effort on behalf of Govern for California, a political influence group backed by real estate and tech interests — didn’t respond to requests for comment.

“It’s intentionally trying to evade the campaign finance laws which are meant to provide transparency,” James told San José Spotlight. “I think the helpful thing Mahan could do is call on the group trying to raise that money for his benefit to follow disclosure rules like everyone else — that would really be to the mayor’s credit since he has characterized his campaign as standing up to special interests in Sacramento.”

It remains to be seen whether Mahan will stick it out to the June 2 primary election.

“Matt is a wonderful human being. He is a good person,” the source close to the campaign told San José Spotlight. “He had the right idea of getting in the race. I want him to be governor on a personal level. But the timing was too late and a lot of people close to the campaign have not been listened to. That’s the truth.”

Contact Brandon Pho at [email protected] or @brandonphooo on X.