Silicon Valley congressional candidates clash on poll results

Two new polls in one of the Bay Area’s hottest congressional races favor San Jose’s former mayor over a Silicon Valley state lawmaker. But both campaigns differ on how close the race really is.

Poll findings released by Assemblymember Evan Low’s campaign on Monday cast the race as a “dead heat” — putting Sam Liccardo at 30%, Low at 29% and undecided respondents at 41%, with a 4.38% margin of error. Yet a poll released last month by Low’s opponent paints a starkly different picture, putting Liccardo at 39%, Low at 28% and undecided voters at 26%, with a 4% margin of error.

Low’s campaign claims his rival is overstating his lead.

“Let’s be clear about the state of the race: we are in a statistical dead heat. The Liccardo campaign has consistently sold the voters a different story and oversold their electoral strength,” a Low campaign spokesperson told San José Spotlight.

Low’s campaign argues that Liccardo’s March primary polling was off by 3% compared to the actual results — a margin that still netted Liccardo 21% of the vote over Low’s 17%. The Low campaign also criticized Liccardo for not releasing favorability numbers, which is a different polling question from how one would vote.

“Evan’s (favorability numbers) are better than Sam’s, and Evan has room to expand his base heading into a high-turnout general election that features Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket,” the Low spokesperson said.

Gil Rubinstein, spokesperson for Liccardo’s campaign, said the net favorability rating for the former mayor is 25%. The poll findings released by Low’s campaign from Tulchin Research cast Low’s favorability rating at 31% — two percentage points lower than Liccardo, who still led at 33%.

Rubinstein said Liccardo remains the clear favorite.

“Every poll — including this one — shows Sam winning and leading amongst nearly every demographic group, including Democrats, younger voters and women, because Sam is the only candidate with a record of delivering results for the people of this district, and the only candidate to refuse campaign donations from oil companies, PG&E and private prisons,” Rubinstein told San José Spotlight.

The findings come after both candidates spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to observe and review a historic, controversial recount of the March 5 primary election results, which initially put Low in a stunning tie with Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian. The mystery of who was behind the recount, which was flush with Super PAC money, led to calls for transparency from both the district’s current Congresswoman Anna Eshoo and the local Democratic Party. The results of the recount picked up extra votes for Low and knocked Simitian off — ensuring Liccardo only had one opponent in the November runoff.
The numbers released by Liccardo’s campaign also show Liccardo leading Low among Democrats, No Party Preference voters and Republicans. Lake Research Partners polled 600 likely general election voters through telephone and online interviews from June 24 to June 27.

However, the poll released by Low’s campaign gave Liccardo a higher “unfavorable” rating of 22% to Low’s 13%. Tulchin Research polled 500 likely general election voters from July 23 to July 29. It was conducted after Vice President Harris jumped into the presidential contest, replacing President Joe Biden as the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Tulchin Research’s findings were released a day before Harris announced her vice presidential running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

Contact Brandon Pho at [email protected] or @brandonphooo on X, formerly known as Twitter.