Waite: We don’t need another tax increase for public transit

Santa Clara County voters have been generous to VTA. Today’s sales tax rate includes four ballot measures — from 1976, 2000, 2008 and 2016 — totaling 1.625%, providing VTA nearly $900 million per year.

Now, supporters of Connect Bay Area, a 14-year regional transit measure for the Bay Area, propose adding another 0.5%, giving VTA another $265 million annually at a time when the agency projecting a mere $15 million deficit despite farebox receipts covering less than 6% of operating costs. The magnitude of the tax increase is significantly out of line with VTA’s needs and voters should reject the proposal.

Santa Clara County taxpayers should be especially concerned by VTA’s long history of mismanagement as evidenced by four Civil Grand Jury reports in 2003, 2009, 2019 and 2026. The 2003 report noted that “the operating performance of VTA compared unfavorably to its peer organizations,” a position reiterated in 2019’s report: “operating performance has continued to deteriorate over the past 10 years, relative to both its own historical performance and (that) of its peers.”

Why should we entrust VTA with a 20% budget increase when the agency has shown no real need for additional funds, nor has it done any more than identify vague buckets of spending for the windfall. Furthermore, VTA has a history of being unable to deliver significant projects, such as the BART extension and the Eastridge light rail line, either on time or on budget.

Proponents of the measure claim mass transit faces a “fiscal cliff” that could decimate local systems. They are wrong and voters should let them know that come November by voting no on the measure. This is especially true for Santa Clara County residents, who would be subsidizing BART, Caltrain and other systems to the tune of about $45 million a year.

Proponents are wrong because the fiscal cliff occurred six years ago when the Bay Area was mandated a three-week shutdown to slow the spread COVID-19. BART ridership cratered, falling 94% from its 2019 level, and VTA fell 79%. Massive federal subsidies totaling $4.4 trillion allowed Bay Area mass transit systems to ignore the declines, defer cost reductions and hope for a return to “normality.” That has turned out to be a bad bet.

Ridership remains significantly below previous levels. As of June 2026, BART’s monthly ridership is 58% of the 2019 average while VTA is at 86%. A slight upward trend is evident. A simple linear regression analysis of the three and a half years ending in June 2026 shows VTA recovering to 2019 levels around August 2030, primarily due to bus service, with BART taking an additional 15 years to 2045. This is especially hard on BART, whose farebox recovery rate had been the envy of the U.S. mass transit systems and now projects significant budget shortfalls without the new tax.

The federal largesse allowed transit spending to continue at unsustainable levels. BART operating expenses increased 38% from 2019 to 2025 — 7% in real terms — driving the cost per trip up the cost per trip from $5.35 to $16.09, 139% in real terms. Comparable numbers for VTA are spending up 21%, although down 1% in real terms, and cost per trip up 60%, respectively.

Supporters of the measure want us to ignore the past irresponsible use of our tax dollars and vote for an additional $1 billion per year of sales tax revenue so that our transit systems can continue their profligate spending, ignoring the new reality.

Voters should vote no on the tax increase to send a message that mass transit agencies must pull their heads out of the sand, stop pretending that their world was not significantly changed because of COVID and align the cost of their services with our new transit patterns.

Pat Waite is a board member and treasurer of the Silicon Valley Business Alliance.