Robinson: Where is Joe?

Where is Joe?

No, not that Joe. Where is Joe Simitian, who lost a runoff spot in Congressional District 16 by five votes and has been uncharacteristically silent on who he supports for the coveted seat. Simitian is in the enviable position of kingmaker as his voters must now choose between the two remaining candidates.

Polling by Tulchin Research shows the race between Assemblymember Evan Low and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo as a virtual tie. Each candidate has strengths. Liccardo is more well-known, though his negatives are higher than Low, according to the Tulchin poll. Low has the endorsement of the Santa Clara County Democratic Party and could get a boost from younger voters, more likely to turn out since Kamala Harris became the presidential nominee.

A Lake Research Partners poll in June shows dramatically different results, with Liccardo leading by 12 points. The Tulchin poll was taken in July.

But most insiders believe the race will be very close. Simitian’s endorsement could be key. Admittedly, it is more bitter than sweet for Simitian, who was tied with Low before Liccardo’s ally Michael Bloomberg funded the recount effort. Simitian had long waited for the seat to open and prepared accordingly.

Privately, sources inside the Liccardo campaign admit previous polling showed Low to be the candidate they wanted to avoid. The recount effort was predicated on the erroneous theory that Simitian would come out on top. Given the results of the primary, it appeared on the surface Liccardo would have benefitted from a three-person race. Apparently, the polling showed otherwise.

Simitian may be reluctant to endorse either candidate. But many think his voters could use his advice on who to vote for.

So, where is Joe?

San José Spotlight columnist Rich Robinson is a political consultant, attorney and author of “The Shadow Candidate.” His columns appear every fourth Wednesday of the month.