VTA touts spending plan for possible Bay Area sales tax increase

South Bay transportation leaders aren’t waiting for the November election to draft a wishlist of projects to make car-less commuting more bearable. But it depends entirely on voters passing a regional sales tax increase — and saving the Bay Area from transit station closures.

The sales tax measure — which proposes a 0.5% increase in Santa Clara County — would raise $1 billion annually for public transit service across five Bay Area counties, including an estimated $264 million for VTA. But the Connect Bay Area Transit initiative needs to gather 186,000 signatures by June 6 if proponents want the measure to go before voters in November.

VTA’s strategy is to give voters a spending plan before Election Day. The public transit agency is drafting a list of possible projects that would outline how revenue from the five-county sales tax, if approved, would be used. The VTA board of directors is expected to adopt a formal plan in June.

Scott Haywood, chief of staff to VTA’s general manager, said the local investment plan amounts to an education campaign on what would happen if the measure passes. Projects could include autonomous vehicles, bus corridor improvements, new capital projects and enhancements to service speed.

“We’ve been on a listening tour with city councils and public meetings to gather community consensus,” Haywood told San José Spotlight. “We won’t be advocating people vote for the measure, but our investment plan lets the public know how those funds will be spent.”

Experts said the move dances close to the edge of political advocacy. But it could be the strategy supporters need to win over car-dependent South Bay voters, as proponents have widely seen Santa Clara County as one of the biggest hurdles based on less receptive polling, a smaller BART presence and tax fatigue.

A November poll ranked Santa Clara County as having the lowest voter support for the initiative out of all five counties, which also includes Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo and San Francisco.

“We in Santa Clara County have some of the lowest amount of transit service and we are also among the most conservative of the five counties, given how strong the tech scene is here and how much influence that has over people,” Harry Neil, a leader of the volunteer signature gathering campaign in the South Bay, told San José Spotlight. “It’s definitely been a challenge we’re running into. I feel like I get maybe one in every 30 people who — as soon as I mention this is raising money — say, ‘Oh it’s another tax.'”

Transit services such as BART and VTA have been a backbone for the Bay Area’s economy, curbing highway traffic gridlock and contributing to the region’s climate goals. They’ve seen recent ridership gains, but are still struggling to get out of multiyear deficits.

VTA surpassed record ridership expectations with Super Bowl 60 this year, but projects a $15 million deficit by 2027. BART on April 17 reported a 10% year-over-year surge in trips this month, but faces an annual structural deficit of $350 million to $400 million. The agency has warned it might close 15 stations with a 70% reduction in service if the proposed tax measure fails.

The Silicon Valley Taxpayers Association has come out against the initiative. The group argues county voters are experiencing tax fatigue, with some cities having some of the highest taxes in the state following last year’s voter-approved Measure A, a five-eighths cent sales tax increase the county is touting will be used to save the local public hospital system from federal spending cuts.

“I’m not a lawyer so I can’t say whether that VTA spending plan constitutes express advocacy. But it’s really distasteful. It’s like — what will help trick you into voting yes?” Chris Robell, a member of the taxpayers association, told San José Spotlight. “This is a large regressive sales tax that disproportionately hurts the poor and makes everything more expensive. It goes against the goal of making the Bay Area more affordable.”

Public agencies are barred from expressly campaigning for a political cause. Sean McMorris, a leading transparency expert with California Common Cause, said VTA’s plan steers clear of that legal territory.

“That doesn’t mean the public might not perceive it as a strategy to get voters to take a certain position on that matter — the education campaign is sure to focus on the positive aspects,” McMorris told San José Spotlight. “But they’re not using magic words like, ‘Vote for this, Please pass this’ or any phrases that explicitly ask voters to take a certain position.”

Representatives for the regional pro-tax campaign won’t say how many signatures they’ve totaled so far across their paid and volunteer canvassing teams. But volunteer organizers said their side has recently crossed 50,000.

“With another five weeks to go, we’re on track to make it — to qualify — but obviously need a huge amount of signatures,” Jeff Cretan, spokesperson for Connect Bay Area Transit, told San José Spotlight. “Cautiously I’d say it’s going well, but we’d really have to run through the tape to get this thing done.”

Cretan said Santa Clara County has required a different strategy than the other four counties due to a complex mix of diverse — but limited — transit options coexisting with a prevailing car culture. At the same time, regional advocates see the county as the Bay Area’s epicenter of transit capital plans, as county leaders are simultaneously constructing a massive Silicon Valley BART extension while planning for a redevelopment of Diridon Station in San Jose to integrate with statewide high-speed rail plans.

“While losing BART and CalTrain would be very hard for the region, there’s also this whole component of VTA and the opportunity that exists with VTA to bring it back to where it was and grow it,” Cretan said.

Haywood said some iteration of the investment plan could survive if the tax measure fails.

“If the measure passes, obviously we have the funds to implement these things — but if not, there’s still great input from the public in terms of what they’re looking for and gives us direction for how we’d do things differently,” he said.

Contact Brandon Pho at [email protected] or @brandonphooo on X.